Introduction
Polls seem to be a legitimate aspect of the American political scene as we edge closer to the 2024 presidential election. The following article discusses the present state of politics concerning the current poll performance, the leading candidates, and the implications of the same in the elections ahead.
Current Polling Data
National Polls
It is this mid-December 2023 that is bound to witness the climax of the Presidential nominations between President Joe Biden and his main challenger Donald Trump in recent months. Recent national polls conducted in different regions showed that if elections were held today in America, then:
- Democratic Candidate: Joe Biden
- Republican Candidate: Donald Trump
As it stands today, it appears that the two candidates are in a siesta or sleeping with eyes open as they don’t want to risk fall and crash.
Key States
While the battle is on between the two candidates, key states within the United States have the potential to determine who amongst the candidates will be elected as the president. That request also comes to focus on the important states:
- Pennsylvania: Polls indicate that this has been a two horse race with both candidates receiving the appetite they had expected.
- Wisconsin: Polls have been quite insulated in this overall competitive region as both Bide and Trump have challenged each other at strategic locations.
- Arizona: This state has from the onset presents even closer races than others to win the same position, with various polls intending to prove a point.
For detailed state-by-state polling, visit FiveThirtyEight.
Factors Influencing Polls
Voter Sentiment
Voter sentiment can shift rapidly due to various factors, including:
Polling Methodology
Understanding how polls are conducted is essential for interpreting their results. Key factors include:
- Sample Size: The more the sample size, the more accurate the data.
- Instrumentation Data Collection: Online polls, interviews done through telephone and face-to-face questionnaires may yield different results.
- Margin of Error: It represents the possible variation of the outcome of polls.
For more on polling methodologies, check out Pew Research Center.
Voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s
The latest NBC News poll finds President Joe Biden with a job rating of 41% approve, 58% disapprove. By comparison, Trump’s retrospective job rating in the same poll is 48% approve, 51% disapprove.
That 48% approval for Trump is higher than the NBC News poll ever found for him during his presidency.
It gets to the same dynamic as the question about who voters think would better represent change (more on that below). And it could play a decisive role, as some swing voters have said they’re willing to look past what they see as Trump character defects out of a desire to return to the economic conditions they remember in the pre-Covid years of his presidency.
Notes: The poll was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2 and surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationally. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Source: NBC News national poll
Who is the change candidate in the race?
This might be the most important question in a contest between a sitting vice president (Harris) and an ex-president (Trump), who are both competing for voters who think the nation is on the wrong track. In the final NBC News poll, 46% of voters said Harris better represents change, compared with 41% who believe Trump does — a slight advantage for Harris.
But when they were asked what concerns them more — Harris’ continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump’s continuing the approach from his first term as president — 41% say they are more concerned about Harris’ following in Biden’s path, compared with 40% who are more worried about Trump’s repeating the actions of his term, according to the same poll.
Conclusion
Most of what is going to play out in the final tally of opinion on major issues and performance is a viewpoint of the situation in light of 2024 presidential election polls, though always changing since the elections draw near.
Call to Action
Stay updated on the latest polling data and election news by following reliable sources such as nbc Politics and The New York Times. Engaging in discussions about the implications of these polls can help you better understand the electoral process and its impact on the future of the country.
